Estimating the economic impact of interpersonal violence in Mexico in 2021: projecting three hypothetical scenarios for 2030 / Estimación del impacto económico de la violencia interpersonal en México en el 2021: proyección de tres escenarios hipotéticos para el 2030 / Estimativa do impacto econômico da violência interpessoal no México em 2021: projeção de três cenários hipotéticos para 2030

ABSTRACT Objective. To calculate the economic impact of violence across Mexico in 2021 and project costs for 2021-2030. Methods. Incidence data was obtained from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, (SESNSP), National Population Council (CONAPO), National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), and the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE). Our model incorporates incidence estimates of the costs of events associated with violence (e.g., homicides, hospitalizations, rapes, extortions, robbery, etc). Results. The economic impact of crime and violence in Mexico for the year 2021 has been estimated at about $192 billion US dollars, which corresponds to 14.6% of the national GDP. By reducing violence 50% by 2030, we estimate savings of at least US$110 billion dollars. This represents a saving of US$1 376 372 for each company and more than US$66 771 for each Mexican. Conclusion. Violence and homicides have become one of the most pressing public health and economic concerns for their effect on health, development, and economic growth. Due to low cost and high impact, prevention is the most efficient way to respond to crime and violence while also being an essential component of sustainable strategies aimed at improving citizen security.

RESUMEN Objetivo. Calcular el impacto económico de la violencia en el 2021 en todo México y proyectar sus costos para el período 2021-2030. Métodos. Los datos de incidencia se obtuvieron del Secretariado Ejecutivo del Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública (SESNSP), el Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO), el Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI), y la Encuesta Nacional de Victimización y Percepción sobre Seguridad Pública (ENVIPE). Nuestro modelo incorpora estimaciones de la incidencia de los costos de los eventos asociados a la violencia (por ejemplo, homicidios, hospitalizaciones, violaciones, extorsiones, robos, etc.) Resultados. Se ha estimado que el impacto económico del delito y la violencia en México para el año 2021 es de alrededor de US$ 192 000 millones de dólares estadounidenses, lo que corresponde al 14,6% del PIB nacional. Estimamos que una reducción del 50% de la violencia para el 2030 supondría un ahorro de al menos US$110 000 millones. Esto representa un ahorro de US$1 376 372 para cada empresa y de más de US$66 771 para cada mexicano. Conclusión. La violencia y los homicidios se han convertido en una de las preocupaciones económicas y de salud pública más apremiantes por su efecto sobre la salud, el desarrollo y el crecimiento económico. Debido a su bajo costo y alto impacto, la prevención es la forma más eficiente de responder al delito y la violencia, al tiempo que es un componente esencial de las estrategias sostenibles dirigidas a mejorar la seguridad ciudadana.

RESUMO Objetivo. Estimar o impacto econômico da violência no México em 2021 e fazer a projeção de custos para o período 2021-2030. Métodos. Os dados de incidência da violência no país foram obtidos da Secretaria Executiva do Sistema Nacional de Segurança Pública (SESNSP), do Conselho Nacional de População (CONAPO), do Instituto Nacional de Estatística e Geografia (INEGI) e da Pesquisa Nacional de Vitimização e Percepção de Segurança Pública (ENVIPE). O modelo incorpora estimativas de incidência de custos de eventos associados à violência (como homicídios, internações hospitalares, estupros, extorsões e roubos). Resultados. O impacto econômico da criminalidade e da violência no México foi estimado em torno de US$192 bilhões em 2021, o que equivale a 14,6% do produto interno bruto (PIB) nacional. Estima-se que reduzir a violência em 50% até 2030 pode resultar em uma economia de US$ 110 bilhões ou mais, o que representa uma redução de gastos de US$1 376 372 para cada empresa e de mais de US$66 771 para cada cidadão do México. Conclusão. A violência e os homicídios são um dos problemas econômicos e de saúde pública mais prementes por suas consequências à saúde, ao desenvolvimento e ao crescimento econômico do país. Devido ao seu baixo custo e alto impacto, a prevenção é a forma mais eficiente de combater a criminalidade e a violência, além de ser um componente essencial de qualquer estratégia sustentável para aumentar a segurança da população.

A comparison of political violence by left-wing, right-wing, and Islamist extremists in the United States and the world.

Although political violence has been perpetrated on behalf of a wide range of political ideologies, it is unclear whether there are systematic differences between ideologies in the use of violence to pursue a political cause. Prior research on this topic is scarce and mostly restricted to self-reported measures or less extreme forms of political aggression. Moreover, it has generally focused on respondents in Western countries and has been limited to either comparisons of the supporters of left-wing and right-wing causes or examinations of only Islamist extremism. In this research we address these gaps by comparing the use of political violence by left-wing, right-wing, and Islamist extremists in the United States and worldwide using two unique datasets that cover real-world examples of politically motivated, violent behaviors. Across both datasets, we find that radical acts perpetrated by individuals associated with left-wing causes are less likely to be violent. In the United States, we find no difference between the level of violence perpetrated by right-wing and Islamist extremists. However, differences in violence emerge on the global level, with Islamist extremists being more likely than right-wing extremists to engage in more violent acts.

Prevalence of lateral violence in nurse workplace: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of inter-nurse lateral violence (LV) reported in current studies is inconsistent, ranging from 7% to 83%. The purpose of this study is to quantify the prevalence of LV in nurses' workplaces. METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Cochrane, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, CNKI and Wanfang databases were searched for relevant studies (up to 27 January 2021). We included cross-sectional, case-control or cohort studies in which both abusers and victims were nurses. Studies that did not provide specific data on abusers were excluded. Stata V.16.0 was used for statistical analysis. Fixed-effect or random-effect model was adopted according to heterogeneity, which was evaluated by Cochran's Q and I2 values. The main indicator was LV prevalence. Sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis and meta-regression were performed to investigate the sources of heterogeneity. RESULTS: A total of 14 studies with 6124 nurses were included. Further, 13 articles with 5745 nurses were included in the meta-analysis, and the pooled prevalence of LV among nurses was 33.08% (95% CI: 23.41% to 42.75%, p<0.05; I2=99.0%). The remaining one study containing 370 samples reported that the prevalence of inter-nurse LV was 7.92%. Subgroup analysis showed that region, sample size, sampling, study's quality, response rate and publication time might not be the sources of heterogeneity. Meta-regression indicated that sample size had the main influence on model heterogeneity. Egger's test showed the existence of publication bias (p=0.03). DISCUSSION: The prevalence of inter-nurse LV is high in nurse workplace. It is suggested that scholars pay more attention to the cultural differences of inter-nurse LV between regions in the future. This study has the following limitations: there is a lack of studies on LV prevalence in many countries; lack of standard assessment tools; no grey literature was searched.

Aspects of trauma related to violence, accidents and falls before and during the COVID-19 pandemic / Aspectos del trauma relacionados con la violencia, accidentes y caídas antes y durante la pandemia COVID-19

Abstract Introduction: Trauma is the second leading cause of mortality and the sixth leading cause of hospitalization in the country, with violence, accidents, and falls being the most prevalent. However, the country is experiencing reflexes of the COVID-19 pandemic, together with a lack of studies on trauma, as well as on clinical care. Objective: To analyze the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of trauma related to violence, accidents, and falls among the years 2019, 2020, and 2021, considered as before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: Retrospective cohort study, with adults aged 25-55 years, who suffered trauma related to violence, falls, and other accidents, in the period between March and June of 2019, 2020, and 2021, in the city of São Paulo. Data surveys were carried out using the TABNET system, of the Municipal Health Department. Within this system, the search was carried out through the Information System for the Surveillance of Accidents, of the Coordination of Health Surveillance, in which situations of violence were notified and recorded by the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. Subsequently, the Information System for Surveillance of Violence and Accidents was accessed, focusing on notifications and records of falls and other accidents. Results: Trauma remained more prevalent for males, with complete primary education, and ethnicity predominantly between white or brown. When analyzing the different types of violence: physical, torture, and sexual, there was a prevalence of higher percentages during the year 2019, the pre-pandemic period of COVID-19, except for psychological/moral violence, which was higher in 2021. It should also be noted that the different mechanisms of violence were significantly more prevalent in 2019, as well as the different causes of violence, falls, and car trauma involving pedestrians, occupants, drivers, and passengers. Outpatient care confirmed the higher trend in the pre-pandemic period; however, emergency hospital care showed a greater number of requests in 2020 and 2021. Conclusión: Trauma from violence, accidents, and falls was higher pre-pandemic compared to the period during the COVID-19 pandemic; as well as the search for health care in hospitals and outpatient clinics. These findings show a possible reduction in trauma reports and lower demand for assistance during the pandemic.

Resumen Introducción: El trauma es la segunda causa de mortalidad y la sexta de hospitalización en el país, siendo la violencia, los accidentes y las caídas las más prevalentes. Sin embargo, el país está experimentando reflejos de una pandemia de COVID-19, junto a una falta de estudios sobre el trauma, así como sobre la atención clínica. Objetivo: Analizar las características clínicas y epidemiológicas del trauma junto a la violencia, accidentes y caídas entre los años 2019, 2020 y 2021, considerados antes y durante la pandemia COVID-19. Materiales y métodos: Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo, con adultos de 25 a 55 años, que sufrieron trauma relacionado con violencia, caídas y otros accidentes, en el período comprendido entre marzo y junio de 2019, 2020 y 2021, en la ciudad de São Paulo. Las encuestas de datos fueron realizadas por el sistema TABNET, por el Departamento Municipal de Salud. Dentro de este sistema, la búsqueda se realizó a través del Sistema de Información para la Vigilancia de Accidentes, de la Coordinación de Vigilancia en Salud, en el cual las situaciones de violencia fueron notificadas y registradas por el Sistema Nacional de Información de Enfermedades Notificables. Posteriormente, se accedió al Sistema de Información de Vigilancia de Violencia y Accidentes, con enfoque en notificaciones y registro de caídas y otros accidentes. Resultados: El trauma siguió siendo más prevalente para los hombres, con educación primaria completa y raza predominantemente entre blancos y morenos. Al analizar los diferentes tipos de violencia: física, tortura y sexual, hubo mayores porcentajes de prevalencia durante el año 2019, período prepandémico de COVID-19, a excepción de la violencia psicológica / moral, que fue mayor en 2021. Nótese que los diferentes mecanismos de violencia fueron significativamente más prevalentes en 2019, así como las diferentes causas de violencia, caídas y traumatismos automovilísticos que involucran a peatones, ocupantes, conductores y pasajeros. La atención ambulatoria confirmó la tendencia de superioridad en el período prepandémico, sin embargo, la atención hospitalaria de emergencia mostró un mayor número de solicitudes en 2020 y 2021. Conclusión: Los traumas de violencia, accidentes y caídas son más prepandémico en comparación con el período durante la pandemia COVID-19; así como la búsqueda de asistencia sanitaria en hospitales y clínicas. Estos hallazgos muestran una posible reducción en los informes de trauma y una menor demanda de asistencia durante la pandemia.

Rising incidence of interpersonal violence in Pennsylvania during COVID-19 stay-at home order.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and associated policies have had important downstream consequences for individuals, communities, and the healthcare system, and they appear to have been accompanied by rising interpersonal violence. The objective of this study was to evaluate the incidence of injuries owing to interpersonal violence after implementation of a statewide stay-at-home order in Pennsylvania in March 2020. METHODS: Using the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcome Study registry, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with gunshot wounds, stab wounds, and blunt assault-related injuries attributable to interpersonal violence treated at Pennsylvania trauma centers from March 16 to July 31 of 2018, 2019, and 2020. RESULTS: There were fewer total trauma admissions in 2020 (17,489) vs 2018 (19,290) and 2019 (19,561). Gunshot wounds increased in 2020 to 737 vs 647 for 2019 and 565 for 2018 (P = .028), whereas blunt assault injuries decreased (P = .03). In all time periods, interpersonal violence primarily impacted urban counties. African American men were predominantly affected by gunshot wounds and stab wounds, whereas Caucasian men were predominantly affected by blunt assault injuries. There were more patients with substance abuse disorders and positive drug screens during coronavirus disease than in comparison periods: (stab wound population 52.3% vs 33.9% vs 45.9%, coronavirus disease era vs 2018 vs 2019, respectively P = .0001), (blunt assault injury population 41.4% vs 33.1% vs 33.5%, coronavirus disease era vs 2018 vs 2019, respectively P < .0001). There was no correlation between the incidence of interpersonal violence and coronavirus disease 2019 rates at the county level. CONCLUSION: The implementation of a stay-at-home order was accompanied by rising incidence of gunshot and stab wound injuries in Pennsylvania. Preparedness for future resurgences of coronavirus disease 2019 and other pandemics calls for plans to address injury prevention, recidivism, and access to mental health and substance abuse prevention services.

Ethical capacity and its challenges in the academy of science: historical continuities and contemporary violence.

This reflective essay is inspired by a roundtable discussion at the World Science Forum on the question 'Are there ethical limits to what science can achieve and should pursue?' I argue that, amid the conflicting trends of 'technological utopianism'-extreme faith in technological solutions; and 'post-truth' politics-the populist pushback against the universality of science, the conditions for ethical knowledge production are significantly challenged. Drawing on insights gleaned from my work on political violence, law, and technology, I point to historical continuities in the way the application and pursuit of science relates to violence-especially state violence. Conscious of the fact that science exercises no restraint on violence-and indeed, may be put to work for violent purposes-the paper calls for more attention to the social, structural, and political conditions of scientific production. The final part of this essay, therefore, examines three developments challenging the ethical capacity of scholars and scientists today. These are (1) the bureaucratization of ethics (2), 'ethics washing,' and (3) co-optation. Like other policy domains in our society, informed normative assessments around scientific pursuits-value judgments and ethical evaluation-ought to be based on sound empirical knowledge of the contingencies of science.

21st Century Lens on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in Surgery Antiracism Symposium.

Inequities in society and health care combined with underlying structural and systemic racism have demonstrated significant consequences which have resulted in a renewed focus on the current state of diversity in health care and the field of surgery. However, efforts to combat racism and increase diversity and inclusion at all levels in the field of surgery require a comprehensive review, significant commitment, and purposeful action to achieve. These actions must include increasing diversity within training program recruitment, improving retention of minority and under-represented trainees, and implementing inclusive, transparent pathways to promotion, leadership, and involvement in scientific inquiry. This symposium brings together experts in surgery, health equity and policy to address antiracism, diversity, equity, and inclusion in a comprehensive manner ranging from workforce diversity and promotion, pipeline diversity, scholarly pursuits, social and political determinants of health.

Violence and abuse experiences and associated risk factors during the COVID-19 outbreak in a population-based sample of Norwegian adolescents.

BACKGROUND: The lockdowns occurring across society because of the COVID-19 pandemic have had far-reaching consequences for children and adolescents. One immediate concern was what the impact of the comprehensive disease control measures on rates of violence and abuse against children and adolescents would be. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish rates of child abuse and degree of family conflict during the first COVID-19 lockdown spring 2020. Additionally, we aimed to investigate associations between preexisting and concurrent risk factors and abuse during these unique times. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A total of 3545 Norwegian 13- to 16-year-olds participated in this study. A total of 1944 of these had provided data 1 year before the lockdown. METHODS: We used a web survey format to assess abuse exposure and associated risk factors. The survey was administered in schools during school hours in June 2020, shortly after the reopening of schools after the first lockdown. RESULTS: In this sample 8.2% reported psychological abuse during lockdown, 2.4% had experienced physical abuse and 1.4% sexual abuse. For online sexual abuse, the rate was 5.6% during this time period. Adolescents did not report an increase in family conflict. Concurrently perceived family affluence and family risk factors were most strongly associated with physical abuse during lockdown (OR = 11.01(95% CI 5.32-22.84); OR = 5.36 (95% CI 2.69-10.67)), but also other types of child maltreatment. Analyses across assessment points suggested that prior victimization was the most accurate predictor of abuse experiences during lockdown (OR = 3.84 (95% CI 2.85-5.20)). CONCLUSIONS: The negative consequences of the COVID-19 preventative measures struck the adolescent population unevenly. The findings underscore the need for targeted measures to mitigate the negative outcomes of health-related crises for adolescents in risk groups such as those with low family affluence and prior abuse experiences.

Homicide Epidemic in Cali, Colombia: A Surveillance System Data Analysis, 1993‒2018.

Objectives. To examine homicide rates in Cali, Colombia, during the 1993-2018 period, using information derived from an interagency surveillance system. Methods. We used homicide data from Cali's Epidemiological Surveillance System to examine homicide trends by victim's age and sex, time, and type of method used. We estimated trend changes and the annual percentage changes using joinpoint regression analyses. Results. Homicide rates per 100 000 inhabitants dropped from 102 in 1993 to 47.8 in 2018. We observed reductions in homicide rates across age and sex groups. Most homicide victims were men aged 20 to 39 years from poor, marginalized areas. Firearms were used in 84.9% of all cases. The average annual percentage change for the entire period was -3.6 (95% confidence interval = -6.7, -0.4). Conclusions. Fluctuations in homicide rates in Cali show a clear epidemic pattern, occurring concurrently with the "crack epidemic" in different countries. Reliable and timely information provided by an Epidemiological Surveillance System allowed opportune formulation of public policies to reduce the impact of violence in Cali.

Mortality and fluctuations in macroeconomic activity in New Zealand.

AIMS: To model the statistical relationships between mortality rates and macroeconomic conditions in New Zealand over the post-war era. METHODS: Time series methods are used to model statistical relationships between the macroeconomic unemployment rate and mortality rates across different age groups and morbidities. RESULTS: Decreases in the age-adjusted mortality rate are two-and-a-half times as large during episodic increases in the national unemployment rate (p = 0.01). This short-run procyclicality is driven primarily by mortality among the elderly (66+) and middle-aged (36-65). There is also strong evidence that assault and self-inflicted harm mortality rates are countercyclical and have a long-run relationship with the national unemployment rate (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Mortality exhibits both short-run procyclical and long-run countercyclical features. Accelerated reductions in elderly mortality during periods of rising unemployment are consistent with overseas evidence that tight labour markets have negative impacts on aged care. However, further research is necessary to uncover the causal channels, if any, that underpin this correlation in New Zealand data. Long-run variation in mortality due to violence, such as assaults and suicide, is closely linked to employment conditions, indicating that policy responses to violence and suicide should not preclude addressing a potential lack of employment opportunities.

Highly public anti-Black violence is associated with poor mental health days for Black Americans.

Highly public anti-Black violence in the United States may cause widely experienced distress for Black Americans. This study identifies 49 publicized incidents of racial violence and quantifies national interest based on Google searches; incidents include police killings of Black individuals, decisions not to indict or convict the officer involved, and hate crime murders. Weekly time series of population mental health are produced for 2012 through 2017 using two sources: 1) Google Trends as national search volume for psychological distress terms and 2) the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) as average poor mental health days in the past 30 d among Black respondents (mean weekly sample size of 696). Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models accounted for autocorrelation, monthly unemployment, season and year effects, 52-wk lags, news-related searches for suicide (for Google Trends), and depression prevalence and percent female (for BRFSS). National search interest varied more than 100-fold between racial violence incidents. Black BRFSS respondents reported 0.26 more poor mental health days during weeks with two or more racial incidents relative to none, and 0.13 more days with each log10 increase in national interest. Estimates were robust to sensitivity tests, including controlling for monthly number of Black homicide victims and weekly search interest in riots. As expected, racial incidents did not predict average poor mental health days among White BRFSS respondents. Results with national psychological distress from Google Trends were mixed but generally unsupportive of hypotheses. Reducing anti-Black violence may benefit Black Americans' mental health nationally.

Changes in trends during the COVID-19 lockdown: An urban, Level-1 trauma center's experience.

BACKGROUND: A community lockdown has a profound impact on its citizens. Our objective was to identify changes in trauma patient demographics, volume, and pattern of injury following the COVID-19 lockdown. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted at a Level-1 Trauma Center from 2017 to 2020. RESULTS: A downward trend in volume is seen December-April in 2020 (R2 = 0.9907). February through April showed an upward trend in 2018 and 2019 (R2= 0.80 and R2 = 0.90 respectively), but a downward trend in 2020 (R2 = 0.97). In April 2020, there was 41.6% decrease in total volume, a 47.4% decrease in blunt injury and no decrease in penetrating injury. In contrast to previous months, in April the majority of injuries occurred in home zip codes. CONCLUSIONS: A community lockdown decreased the number of blunt trauma, however despite social distancing, did not decrease penetrating injury. Injuries were more likely to occur in home zip codes.

A Dual Pandemic: The Influence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Trends and Types of Firearm Violence in California, Ohio, and the United States.

BACKGROUND: This study sought to determine the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 stay-at-home (SAH) and reopening orders on trends and types of firearm violence in California, Ohio, and the United States, hypothesizing increased firearm violence after SAH. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective data (January 1, 2018, to July 31, 2020) on firearm incidents/injuries/deaths and types of firearm violence were obtained from the Gun Violence Archive. The periods for SAH and reopening for the US were based on dates for California. Ohio dates were based on Ohio's timeline. Mann-Whitney U analyses compared trends and types of daily firearm violence per 100,000 legal firearm owners across 2018-2020 periods. RESULTS: In California, SAH and reopening orders had no effect on firearm violence in 2020 compared with 2018 and 2019 periods, respectively. In Ohio, daily median firearm deaths increased during 2020 SAH compared with 2018 and 2019 and firearm incidents and injuries increased during 2020 reopening compared with 2018, 2019 and 2020 SAH. In the United States, during 2020, SAH firearm deaths increased compared with historical controls and firearm incidents, deaths and injuries increased during 2020 reopening compared with 2018, 2019 and 2020 SAH (all P < 0.05). Nationally, when compared with 2018 and 2019, 2020 SAH had increased accidental shootings deaths with a decrease in defensive use, home invasion, and drug-involved incidents. CONCLUSIONS: During 2020 SAH, the rates of firearm violence increased in Ohio and the United States but remained unchanged in California. Nationally, firearm incidents, deaths and injuries also increased during 2020 reopening versus historical and 2020 SAH data. This suggests a secondary "pandemic" as well as a "reopening phenomenon," with increased firearm violence not resulting from self-defense.

The heartbeat of the city.

Human activity is organised around daily and weekly cycles, which should, in turn, dominate all types of social interactions, such as transactions, communications, gatherings and so on. Yet, despite their strategic importance for policing and security, cyclical weekly patterns in crime and road incidents have been unexplored at the city and neighbourhood level. Here we construct a novel method to capture the weekly trace, or "heartbeat" of events and use geotagged data capturing the time and location of more than 200,000 violent crimes and nearly one million crashes in Mexico City. On aggregate, our findings show that the heartbeats of crime and crashes follow a similar pattern. We observe valleys during the night and peaks in the evening, where the intensity during a peak is 7.5 times the intensity of valleys in terms of crime and 12.3 times in terms of road accidents. Although distinct types of events, crimes and crashes reach their respective intensity peak on Friday night and valley on Tuesday morning, the result of a hyper-synchronised society. Next, heartbeats are computed for city neighbourhood 'tiles', a division of space within the city based on the distance to Metro and other public transport stations. We find that heartbeats are spatially heterogeneous with some diffusion, so that nearby tiles have similar heartbeats. Tiles are then clustered based on the shape of their heartbeat, e.g., tiles within groups suffer peaks and valleys of crime or crashes at similar times during the week. The clusters found are similar to those based on economic activities. This enables us to anticipate temporal traces of crime and crashes based on local amenities.

Victims, offenders and victim-offender overlaps of knife crime: A social network analysis approach using police records.

Knife crime is a source of concern for the police in England and Wales, however little published research exists on this crime type. Who are the offenders who use knives to commit crime, when and why? Who are their victims, and is there a victim-offender overlap? What is the social network formation for people who are exposed to knife crime? Using a multidimensional approach, our aim is to answer these questions about one of England and Wales' largest jurisdictions: Thames Valley. We first provide a state-of-the-art narrative review of the knife crime literature, followed by an analysis of population-level data on central tendency and dispersion of knife crimes reported to the police (2015-2019), on offences, offenders, victims, victim-offender overlaps and gang-related assaults. Social network analysis was used to explore the formations of offender-victim networks. Our findings show that knife crime represents a small proportion of crime (1.86%) and is associated largely with violence offenses. 16-34 year-old white males are at greatest risk of being the victims, offenders or victim-offenders of knife crime, with similar relative risks between these three categories. Both knife offenders and victims are likely to have a criminal record. Knife crimes are usually not gang-related (less than 20%), and experienced mostly between strangers, with the altercation often a non-retaliatory 'one-off event'. Even gang-related knife crimes do not follow 'tit-for-tat' relationships-except when the individuals involved have extensive offending histories and then are likely to retaliate instantaneously. We conclude that while rare, an incident of knife crime remains predicable, as a substantial ratio of offenders and victims of future knife crime can be found in police records. Prevention strategies should not be focused on gang-related criminals, but on either prolific violent offenders or repeat victims who are known to the police-and therefore more susceptible to knife crime exposure.

Violence against older women: A systematic review of qualitative literature.

The majority of the existing evidence-base on violence against women focuses on women of reproductive age (15-49), and globally there is sparse evidence concerning patterns of and types of violence against women aged 50 and older. Improved understanding of differing patterns and dynamics of violence older women experienced is needed to ensure appropriate policy or programmatic responses. To address these gaps in the evidence, we conducted a systematic review of qualitative literature on violence against older women, including any form of violence against women, rather than adopting a specific theoretical framework on what types of violence or perpetrators should be included from the outset, and focusing specifically on qualitative studies, to explore the nature and dynamics of violence against older women from the perspective of women. Following pre-planned searches of 11 electronic databases, two authors screened all identified titles, abstracts and relevant full texts for inclusion in the review. We extracted data from 52 manuscripts identified for inclusion, and conducted quality assessment and thematic synthesis from the key findings of the included studies. Results indicated that the vast majority of included studies were conducted in high-income contexts, and did not contain adequate information on study setting and context. Thematic synthesis identified several central themes, including the intersection between ageing and perceptions of, experiences of and response to violence; the centrality of social and gender norms in shaping older women's experiences of violence; the cumulative physical and mental health impact of exposure to lifelong violence, and that specific barriers exist for older women accessing community supports and health services to address violence victimization. Our findings indicated that violence against older women is prevalent and has significant impacts on physical and mental well-being of older women. Implications for policy and programmatic response, as well as future research directions, are highlighted.

Pathways to aggression and violence in psychosis without longstanding antisocial behavior: A review and proposed psychosocial model for integrative clinical interventions.

There is a need for a clearer understanding of the factors associated with increased risk of aggression and violence (AV) among people with psychosis and other severe mental illness (SMI) to guide effective prevention and intervention. The current article (1) reviews the literature regarding psychosocial factors associated with AV among individuals with psychosis and other SMI who do not have longstanding antisocial behaviors, (2) proposes an integrative psychosocial model of AV that can be practically applied, and (3) proposes appropriate evidence-based clinical interventions to reduce AV and facilitate recovery. We propose that increased risk for AV among people with psychosis is driven by anger, which is affected by a range of factors including victimization and situational stressors, social rejection or experiences of discrimination, anxious arousal, and hostile attribution bias related to psychosis. The cumulative effect of these systems is exacerbated by co-occurring substance misuse and increased impulsivity, particularly negative urgency. In consideration of the current psychosocial model and existing evidence-based interventions for AV in individuals with psychosis, we propose that trauma-informed interventions that integrate skills training in emotion regulation, social and interpersonal situations, cognitive restructuring and remediation, and modified prolonged exposure may demonstrate the most promise for this population.